<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Fortunes & Frictions]]></title><description><![CDATA[Fortunes & Frictions]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/home</link><generator>RSS for Node</generator><lastBuildDate>Thu, 16 Apr 2026 11:00:26 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/blog-feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><item><title><![CDATA[Chekhov's Gun]]></title><description><![CDATA[Most investment problems are overreach problems. We want something to happen and then overestimate the probability that it will. Or a marketing campaign for some investment product seems almost too good to be true, and it ends up, after you buy it —  you'll kick yourself —  but being too good to be true. You end up paying high fees for an underperforming "solution" that had a marketing budget to go find problems. Investors desperately want panaceas, silver bullets, and ways to outperform....]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/chekhov-s-gun</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6963e7e7768b848d27135984</guid><pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 16:10:38 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_06e31fa8e6024f328cde6d70a8acd074~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 Market Forecast]]></title><description><![CDATA[(the one we don't make) My annual rite —  to bastardize the legacy Wall Street ritual of forecasting how markets will perform the next year. Through January and into February, my firm sits down with each client family to map out the year ahead together, including an overview of their investments. We provide both short-term and long-term expectations for their portfolio. This is what we will tell clients to expect in 2026 (i.e. the short-term): Of course there are people who will think this is...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/2026-market-forecast</link><guid isPermaLink="false">695655825d8d95362e15aed2</guid><pubDate>Fri, 02 Jan 2026 14:27:09 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_1bf5237b4ea048118cbe64887804af45~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[One in a Quadrillion]]></title><description><![CDATA[The best investment lesson from the year, 2025? The day, April 9th. The stock market reacted to tariff surprises in late-February-early-April. It was a hellish couple months, with the S&#38;P 500 down nearly 20%. In a data set that's normally distributed, where outcomes cluster around an average (e.g. human heights, shoe sizes, ACT scores), by definition 68% of outcomes fall within one standard deviation ("one sigma" or "1 σ ")  . So if the average height is 70 inches with a standard deviation of...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/one-in-a-quadrillion</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6952989bd4f9dd07cfa5320c</guid><pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2025 15:09:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_e919a193fa474aa2b68a2b040ee3da2b~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Oh, Go On]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Hardest Part. Most investors don’t fail because they’re wrong. They fail because they’re human. We show up to markets with emotion, ego, fear, and overconfidence. And a deep need for randomness to make sense...then we act surprised when those traits get punished? The market isn’t just a pricing machine. It’s a behavioral sorting mechanism. It transfers money from people who can’t manage themselves to people who can. Which is why good investing's first principle is avoiding unforced...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/oh-go-on</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69433fa6a79f8c9ba2ad6fc4</guid><pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2025 01:32:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_00a48500bb0d4c0a957595305493a3d1~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[We Don't Bury our Dead]]></title><description><![CDATA[Every investor earns a single return stream for her entire life. We don't think this way, but it is  this way. It's easy to dream forward:  how rich can I get? We leap into the future, romanticizing what life might be like when we arrive. But return streams, like life itself, are incremental. Our outcomes are built on billions of previous moments and decisions. Some matter more than others, sure, but it's inescapable... Everything contributes something. So flip it. Instead of looking forward,...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/we-don-t-bury-our-dead</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68f63319c4393e2763cf4b28</guid><pubDate>Mon, 10 Nov 2025 16:19:33 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_88d7208c44be4c19bcc49e0975cc032d~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_591,h_546,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Vanguard Conflicted]]></title><description><![CDATA[Is the reputed asset manager swimming in too many lanes? Vanguard just settled with the SEC for nearly $20 million. The charge? Hiding...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/vanguard-conflicted</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68b3638ef8b3f76ca3be9730</guid><pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2025 10:37:29 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_52c0a3a6737843bdb9f9c0a97b578488~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[3 Big Ideas for Understanding How Stocks Really Work]]></title><description><![CDATA[1️⃣ Market Capitalization — the absolute price that matters Many investors incorrectly believe that a stock price tells you how expensive...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/3-big-ideas-for-understanding-how-stocks-really-work</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6897b9a54d23f3b354154b91</guid><pubDate>Sun, 10 Aug 2025 15:57:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_2e7d03477e8c46ef831278f3dc5d70b5~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_496,h_632,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[6 Questions To Make An Advisor Squirm]]></title><description><![CDATA[I recently joined Peter Lazaroff on our friend Ally Jane Ayers' podcast: The Liquidity Event . We discussed optimizing cash in your life,...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/6-questions-to-make-an-advisor-squirm</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68347ca331c7b50b3b0a6a36</guid><pubDate>Thu, 29 May 2025 13:19:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_5042907c261046f194fe45cb6e8d3b47~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[How Harvard Can Minimize Taxes]]></title><description><![CDATA[With President Trump removing Harvard's tax-exempt status, here is a roadmap to lowering tax drag. Run a backdoor Roth IRA.  After coming...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/how-harvard-can-minimize-taxes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6814c91d6eea33cd6f3e3a72</guid><pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2025 17:17:09 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_aeae52b5feb4499483c5615ec41dee8c~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Welcome to the Grasslands]]></title><description><![CDATA[When it comes to investing, it's not that hard to make money most of the time. But the nondescript phrase —  make money —  is nuanced to...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/welcome-to-the-grasslands</link><guid isPermaLink="false">67f79dc66986efc420f831cc</guid><pubDate>Thu, 10 Apr 2025 12:28:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_53e67c85034146b18dc2ae119e5f97f1~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_656,h_437,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[You Should (Possibly) Be Day Trading]]></title><description><![CDATA[Market downturns of this scope and velocity create an uncomfortable truth for prudent, long-term investors: you should (possibly) be day...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/you-should-possibly-be-day-trading</link><guid isPermaLink="false">67f3ba60b63baac9fc09806c</guid><pubDate>Mon, 07 Apr 2025 15:34:32 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_9c926b97a1d24339811c2141c0addf0c~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Do You Know The Muffin Man?]]></title><description><![CDATA[There are now robots roaming the streets of Austin, and cities around the world, delivering food. Why do they deliver food? Because they...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/do-you-know-the-muffin-man</link><guid isPermaLink="false">67cdea97acd704b88b1a70f5</guid><pubDate>Wed, 26 Mar 2025 19:00:48 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_27e2dc5b8ff14d8a9ee49e724f93f5f2~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_249,h_245,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Meet Your Heroes]]></title><description><![CDATA[Occasionally, the people we admire most peel back layers for the masses. One of my favorite pieces to recommend to new folks in the...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/meet-your-heroes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">67d59e1db4708ff7f819b3d7</guid><pubDate>Mon, 17 Mar 2025 00:24:48 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_b9b2a3070d3a41a0844617bf3fb2f9bc~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Dirt Tells No Lies]]></title><description><![CDATA[In 1914, at The Ohio State University (OSU), the "path architect" began the project by famously not beginning it. Tasked with path...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/the-dirt-tells-no-lies</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6744ffd87d2e82fb3b1d0a47</guid><pubDate>Fri, 14 Mar 2025 15:45:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_77501665cd25485bae4755282fdda703~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_699,h_393,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Perspectives on Market Downturns]]></title><description><![CDATA[GUIDING PRINCIPLES Current volatility is frequently representative of imminent volatility.  The word volatility  is often (incorrectly) used interchangeably to describe market downturns. But it's just a statistical measure about deviations from an average. Consider that if the stock market goes down 20% every day for 3 days in a row (welcome to hell!), then it's volatility –  or how much the data points differ from the average –  is not high. It's the lowest possible volatility number...0%....]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/perspectives-on-market-downturns</link><guid isPermaLink="false">67c990a8face46c705778fe7</guid><pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2025 14:39:02 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_85f2736de52d4237a68e2efd99e1f17f~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_822,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Marketing, Masquerading As Investment Expertise]]></title><description><![CDATA[Welcome to Wall Street. The following is repurposed from Peltoma's 2025 Market Forecast Letter, 1/2/2025. Capital Market Expectations...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/marketing-masquerading-as-investment-expertise</link><guid isPermaLink="false">67775220bd89553a61ac7976</guid><pubDate>Fri, 03 Jan 2025 11:38:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_adc3b585430d48428b999db69e987a54~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_621,h_414,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[3 Improvements for 2025]]></title><description><![CDATA[Happy New Year, everyone! 3 ideas that can improve our lives as people and investors... Accept that you are a pea-brained human. You need...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/3-improvements-for-2025</link><guid isPermaLink="false">67743e2bcff00705fb950ac3</guid><pubDate>Tue, 31 Dec 2024 20:53:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_e96a88134b164d3c91cdc5512ee6d6ae~mv2.webp/v1/fit/w_660,h_428,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Lose All Your Money]]></title><description><![CDATA[Market averages tell the big story: if you buy the entire stock market, and sit on it, over long periods that investment portfolio has...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/lose-all-your-money</link><guid isPermaLink="false">66e764b39a81dcaeb6fecf73</guid><pubDate>Tue, 24 Sep 2024 16:26:47 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_8cfa15fd97fd4ed5a9ed41a26ce60cc6~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Brother, I've Come So Far]]></title><description><![CDATA[Five months ago, my wife and I began the divorce process. Sharing a daughter means that our divorce will last a lifetime, and we are...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/brother-i-ve-come-so-far</link><guid isPermaLink="false">66a4333cfb5f2ed79f8a8b6b</guid><pubDate>Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:28:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/bfc6f1_1c6091ce0f704d30b5b9d12f247322ad~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_458,h_765,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Harvard, Yale, &#38; Jelly Roll]]></title><description><![CDATA[Yesterday, I answered a question that I was never smart enough to ask. Whom should you learn from? Society glorifies places like Harvard...]]></description><link>https://www.fortunesandfrictions.com/post/harvard-yale-jelly-roll</link><guid isPermaLink="false">66c35e128d33010f2b16378c</guid><pubDate>Mon, 19 Aug 2024 17:17:32 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8AVOA9U64s&amp;list=PLdMrbgYfVl-s5c4ug8qDCNmdmSKPvr-Pi&amp;index=1" length="0" type="video"/><dc:creator>Rubin Miller, CFA</dc:creator></item></channel></rss>